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It should be, but the actual premium is the result of a human decision, and humans sometimes make very bad decisions. (See, for instance, the purchase of Skype by eBay a decade ago. Also on the value of a network that was an alternative to phone calls.)


Market cap is also the result of human decision.


A single human decision generally has higher variance than a group one. (Not to say that group ones are always reliable.)


eBay made approx 1.4 billion net gain from buying then selling Skype - see http://investor.ebayinc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=8296...

"In May 2011, all of the equity in Skype was sold to Microsoft for $8.5 billion. Due to eBay's 30% stake at the time of sale, the company realized a net gain of $1.4 billion on its original investment in Skype."




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