I don't think AGI is coming in 2025. I expect more incremental progress in AI/ML, but AGI is likely to remain vaporware & marketing hype for many years to come.
I'm not a geologist, but I do think earthquake prediction is going to get a lot better over the next century. However, this improvement will be mostly independent of AGI: The classic ML models & paradigms from a decade or 2 ago are probably adequate for the most part[1]. We just need more & better sensors & several decades to collect enough data.
[1] I'm not saying we won't develop better models & techniques that will help - I expect we will - but I predict the sensor suite & data collection period will end up carrying more weight
I'm not a geologist, but I do think earthquake prediction is going to get a lot better over the next century. However, this improvement will be mostly independent of AGI: The classic ML models & paradigms from a decade or 2 ago are probably adequate for the most part[1]. We just need more & better sensors & several decades to collect enough data.
[1] I'm not saying we won't develop better models & techniques that will help - I expect we will - but I predict the sensor suite & data collection period will end up carrying more weight